Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis
Focusing on recent advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an easily accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science.
Emphasizing topics not traditionally found in DA literature, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science and includes developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges, including online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to provide more-or-less plausible explanations for available data and recommended actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes:
- An emphasis on new approaches rather than classical and traditional ideas
- Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions
- Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management
- Innovative methods for deciding what to do when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified
- Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence
Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction: Five Breakthroughs in Decision and Risk Analysis
Chapter 2 The Ways We Decide: Reconciling Hearts and Minds
Chapter 3 Simulation Optimization: Improving Decisions under Uncertainty
Chapter 4 Optimal Learning in Business Decisions
Chapter 5 Using Preference Orderings to Make Quantitative Trade-Offs
Chapter 6 Causal Analysis and Modeling for Decision and Risk Analysis
Chapter 7 Making Decisions without Trustworthy Risk Models
Chapter 8 Medical Decision-Making: An Application to Sugar-Sweetened Beverages
Chapter 9 Electric Power Vulnerability Models: From Protection to Resilience
Chapter 10 Outthinking the Terrorists
- Pages: 328 pages
- Edition: 1
- Publication Date: 2015-03-30
- Publisher: Wiley
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 1118217160
- ISBN-13: 9781118217160
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